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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly acts as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest upset.

Yet the latest field is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division winners fading and recent underperformers improving collectively. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still